After posting “reading the tea leaves”, I was checking out AlterNet and ran across several interesting posts. First was an interesting piece by Joshua Holland about why polls drive us crazy. http://www.alternet.org/election08/99586/why_the_polls_drive_us_crazy_%28and_shouldn%27t%29/?page=1
Holland points out that the daily tracking polls and other national polls, while interesting, don’t mirror how the election will be won or lost. He argues that one has to look at the individual states – particularly the swing states.
Remember that we don’t vote for president in the United States – we vote state by state for electors who vote for the president. As I write, [September 20] new polls who Obama up by 9 points in Michigan, 5 points in Pennsylvania and a couple of points in Ohio – all crucial swing states.
He also points out a lot of experts are looking at who can get the voters to the polls on November 4 rather than who is leading in the polls. So you combine all the new registered voters including new citizens and the new registrants under 35 and get them to the polls and that may be the election. A lot of the under 35’s don’t have landlines and aren’t polled.
And what is an election with out some fun? This link has some great stuff. http://www.alternet.org/mediaculture/99057/the_10_most_talked-about_election_%2708_viral_videos_/?page=1 I think my favorites are the Obama/Lion King one by Jon Stewart and the McCain debating McCain one. Several of the videos are very serious, however, including the one by doctors about the possible state of John McCain’s health.
A few other random thoughts for the day: When will we get to see Sarah Palin’s (and Todd Palin’s) tax returns? Will anyone mention the Keating Five to John McCain? And since when does thinking about an issue before making a decision as Obama is doing about the Bush-Paulson-Bernanke bail-out proposal a bad thing? Finally, can the Red Sox clinch a playoff spot tonight?