Red Sox 2012 Edition

I wish I were as optimistic as Chad Finn in this morning’s Boston Globe who predicted 93 wins and a Wild Card Slot  I think that is optimistic since we don’t seem to have a reliable closer with Andrew Bailey injured. I also am not sure about Bobby Valentine who was not my pick to replace Terry Francona.  But all that aside, I’m excited about a new season.

The Red Sox’ season began in Fort Myers in February. Will they have enough to make it last into October?

Here are some of Finn’s other predictions  and my comments,

Mike Aviles will be an offensive upgrade from Marco Scutaro.

In his second year as the Red Sox’ starting shortstop, Scutaro had a fine season in 2011 (.299 batting average, .781 OPS). When he was traded in January to Colorado for nondescript pitcher Clayton Mortensen, the deal left many Sox fans puzzled. But Aviles, 31, is a better player than he gets credit for — as a rookie in 2008, he hit .325 with 10 homers for the Royals. He hit .317 after coming to the Red Sox last year, and he’s a lifetime .288 hitter. If he stays healthy, he may be one of the season’s big surprises.

I’ve always like Aviles.  He is versatile and good hitter.  Maybe not a flashy fielder but steady.  The right decision was made about the starting shortstop.

Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, and Clay Buchholz will combine for more than 50 victories.

Two seasons ago, the Red Sox got exactly 50 wins out their big three of Jon Lester (19 wins), Clay Buchholz (17) and … er, John Lackey (14). Beckett had just six wins in an injury-plagued season in ‘10, but he bounced back last year with arguably the best year of his Boston career. There’s no reason he can’t be as effective again in ‘12. Nineteen wins is always a reasonable expectation for Lester — he will get 20 one of these seasons — and a healthy Buchholz is capable of being much more than a No. 3 starter. I’m putting the Lester-Beckett-Buchholz trio down for 54 wins.

I haven’t quite gotten over the fried chicken and beer from last year, but I hope they have grown up.  And as far as I’m concerned, Lackey was one of Theo’s big mistakes.

Cody Ross will become a fan favorite.

Actually, after a spring in which he hit six home runs — brashly and entertainingly flipping his bat on at least half, if not all, of them — he probably already is. But as a righthanded hitter with a swing tailor-made for Fenway Park, a career-long knack for hammering lefthanded pitching (last season excepted), and a personality that almost makes Kevin Millar seem like a wallflower, Ross will be in the middle of the fun at Fenway this summer.

Actually, I’m already a Ross fan.

The Red Sox will win 93 games.

As I wrote last week, the Red Sox are somewhat reminiscent of their 2002 club. Like their counterparts of a decade ago, these Sox have a roster top-heavy with elite talent, but there are depth questions at the end of the rotation and in the bullpen. The ‘02 Sox won 93 games and missed the playoffs. The first edition of Bobby Valentine’s tenure as manager will win 93 games — and make the postseason, thanks to the second wild card

And lose in the ALCS to the eventual champion Rangers.

How’s this for a scenario? Three AL East teams will make the postseason, with the Angels’ overrated lineup beyond Albert Pujols causing them to fall out of contention in the final week. The Red Sox will beat the Yankees in the one-game wild card matchup, then dispatch the Tigers in the Division Series. But the run ends against Adrian Beltre, Yu Darvish and the eventual World Champion Texas Rangers in the ALCS. All in all, not a bad first season for Bobby V., despite the 324 different controversies along the way.

Here’s to new beginnings!  Go Sox!

Bracket busted

My picks for the final four this year:  Duke, Michigan State, Florida State, and North Carolina.  Duke went out early and Florida State didn’t make the Sweet Sixteen.  What I get for ACC loyalty.  Actually, Duke was a decent pick, but FSU was only because they were on a streak and which I thought could be sustained a few more games.  Oh, well.

With injuries to UNC, I have a feeling my ultimate winner – and President Obama’s – may not make it, but we shall see!  I have Michigan State and UNC in the finals, by the way, and they are both still alive for the moment.

 Kendall Marshall off-balance. He landed breaking his non-dominant wrist.

I know that everyone is saying that Kentucky is a lock now, that it is Kentucky against the field, but I am still betting against them.

Wake Retires

I only got to see Tim Wakefield pitch once.  That was on September 2 last year against the Texas Rangers when he came in as the relief pitcher for some kid who had already given up a huge lead.  The Sox weren’t hitting – it was the beginning of the slide – but who knew that night.  Anyway, Wake had a decent night.  And as my husband says every time we talk about the game, “Wake should have started.”  Whatever.  The Sox lost that night and the rest of the season is history. 

Tim Wakefield, who for the past 17 seasons has been a mainstay on the Red Sox pitching staff, is retiring from the game. Over his career, the 45-year-old was 200-180 with a 4.41 ERA in 627 appearances. Scroll through the gallery to review Wakefield's career highlights.

Christopher Gasper has a wonderful column in today’s Boston Globe which sums up how wonderful and how painful it could be to watch Wake pitch. 

It’s not often in sports that you get to say with a reasonable measure of certainty, “Well, we’ll never see that again.’’ But it feels safe to say that we’ll never witness another Tim Wakefield. He has sui generis status in Red Sox history, Knuckleballer Emeritus.

Nudged out the door by the Red Sox’ nonroster (non-) invite to spring training, the noble knuckler called it a career yesterday at age 45 after 19 seasons, the last 17 with the Red Sox. He joined the Sox in 1995 as a reclamation project and exited as the longest-serving pitcher in club history. There is some cosmic mischief in a man who threw the knuckleball, the most asymmetrical pitch in baseball, ending his career with a tidy 200-180 record.

Wakefield is like a Boston sports time capsule. When he was plucked off the scrap heap by then-general manager Dan Duquette on April 26, 1995, Cam Neely was still playing for the Bruins, Curtis Martin, voted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame this month, had been drafted by the Patriots days earlier, Dominique Wilkins was the Celtics’ leading scorer, and TD Garden was five months away from opening.

But Wakefiled was more than a pitcher winner the Roberto Clemete Award in 2010.

The Roberto Clemente Award is given to the player who best combines outstanding skills on the baseball field with devoted work in the community. In Feb. 2010, Wakefield met with the kids at a school he supports, Space Coast Early Intervention Center, a nationally recognized not-for-profit preschool located in his hometown of Melbourne, Fla., for children with and without special needs.

Gasper again

Yes, sometimes watching Wakefield pitch was like getting a root canal without anesthesia, but if it was that tough to watch, imagine what it was like to be the one on the mound. People always got it wrong, the knuckler didn’t make Wakefield’s career easier. It made it harder. Throwing the knuckleball for a living should enhance Wakefield’s legacy, not diminish it.

The converted first baseman pitched his entire career with a chip on his shoulder because of his signature pitch, his successes attributed to the flukes of a fluttering ball and his failures presented as condemning evidence of why a knuckleball pitcher couldn’t be relied upon.

But even knuckleballers run out of gas eventually. 

Here are two of the best,  Wake and Phil Niekro. 

In Feb. 2000, Wakefield gets some instruction from knuckleball expert Phil Niekro at spring training in Fort Myers, Fla.

Gaspae gets the last word.

Like the pitch he threw, Wakefield will be missed a lot.

 

A sign of spring

Snow is/was predicted for Boston today.  When I went to bed it was 2 to 4 inches which is excititing in a year with warmish temps and no snow, but now the forecast is for less than an inch.  But whether or not we actually get any white stuff, this picture makes me feel all warm and happy.

BP021012.jpg

Yes, it is the early arriving Red Sox at spring training.

I haven’t seen any robins yet, but this is almost as good.  Time to wipe out memories of last year’s slide and see if Bobby Valentine can make me a fan.

 

Belichick, the Pats, and the 2012 Campaign

I am not a big football fan, but you can’t live in New England without knowing about Bill Belichick, the Patriots coach, and his monosyllabic style.  Here is it captured perfectly by Dan Wasserman.

02.05BELICHICKIAN.gif

The Pats lost yesterday as we know here in Boston, but one of these guys will be the next President.

Talkin’ Baseball on Christmas

I have a lot of things I should be doing right now instead of posting this but I couldn’t resist sharing this with everyone.

Hope everyone is having a wonderful Christmas – including those on this list who are still alive and kicking!

From the Boston Sunday Globe:

No Hit Ball Players: Adam Dunn and Bill Bergen

The title of this post does not refer to anything a pitcher might accomplish.  This is about position players, starters, who can’t hit the ball. 

We all have days when things don’t go well.  Maybe your boss chews you out for a mistake or for forgetting to do something.  Or you mess up cooking something you have made a thousand times before.  Maybe you put in a load of laundry and forget the soap.  But imagine an entire season like that.  Imagine an entire career. 

Adam Dunn is having one of those years.

The slugger, Adam Dunn, who had been a model of power and production for the past 10 years, finished Tuesday night’s game against the Yankees with a batting average of .165. That is not a typo, not a mistake, and not an easy thing for a professional player to do even if he is trying to.

The New York Times story continues

Dunn, who signed a four-year, $56 million contract to join the White Sox this past winter, has struck out 138 times this season and is on pace for 207.

He has struck out three or more times in 18 games, twice the total of anybody else in the major leagues. Of course, none of this has been made easier — for White Sox fans to believe or for Dunn to endure — by the fact that Dunn is, of all things, the team’s designated hitter.

“I hate it more than anybody can imagine,” Dunn said in an interview Monday. “But what do you do? There’s not an easy button I can push and start over. Or I would.”

Sports have forever been riveting for the wonder of athletic accomplishment, for the demonstrations of grace under pressure, for the ability of people to overcome adversity. But sports can also be riveting for their spectacular moments of failure.

Nick Cafardo had a slightly different  take in the Boston Globe when the White Sox were in town before they played the Yankees.

Dunn’s is a sad story. The more hitting experts look at his swing, the more they realize he has no chance because his hands are never in good hitting position. Dunn doesn’t exactly work overtime to correct it either, and when he recently told Jeff Passan ofYahoo! Sports that he was contemplating quitting, you can understand why. Nowadays when he walks, that’s considered a breakthrough. Nobody saw it coming, and the White Sox are saddled with a completely unproductive player.

“When a guy is going that bad, it’s just sad,’’ concurred one American League scout. “You can’t even evaluate it because the guy is so messed up.’’

Dunn’s season has been historically awful. He has a chance to finish with a lower batting average than even Rob Deer’s .179 in 1991.”

 

But Dunn is only having a spectacularly bad season.  If he bounces back next year, 2011 will be considered an oddity.  Think of Bill Bergen.  No, I never heard of him before today either.   Bergen played for the Brooklyn Superbas from 1901 to 1911.  Lynn Zinser has written a long and interesting story on Bill Bergen who “couldn’t hit the side of a barn.”

In 3,028 career at-bats, he hit two home runs. In only one season did his average top .200. His career .194 on-base percentage means he didn’t walk much. His career .201 slugging percentage means he rarely hit for extra bases. Perhaps his quirkiest statistic: he was never hit by a pitch.

“He is about as bad a hitter as you can possibly imagine,” said David Jones, a baseball historian who edited two books on baseball’s dead-ball era. “But if he’d been a little bit better hitter, no one would ever talk about him.”

Instead, his name crops up whenever a baseline of offensive futility is needed. He does not have a line named after him like Mario Mendoza, whose paltry batting average made him synonymous with hitting .200. But Bergen is firmly installed in the history of futility.

 How did he last 11 seasons?

Bergen’s secret was playing at a time — that dreaded dead-ball era — when good defensive catchers were worth their weight in Teddy Roosevelt autographs. Bergen was a great defensive catcher. By some statistical measures, he is considered among the top five defensive catchers in National League history.

“It was an era when catchers were even more important than they are today because bunting and stealing bases were the main way teams would score runs,” said Tom Simon, who along with Jones edited the books on the stars of the dead-ball era. “So teams would carry a guy hitting .139 if he could keep the other team from scoring.”

Bergen caught a relatively modest 941 games but ranks in the top 20 in career assists by a catcher with 1,444. He threw out 47.3 percent of runners attempting to steal. He once threw out six in one game, against St. Louis in 1909

Bergen at least was good at something.  Poor Adam Dunn is the DH so he can’t point to his fielding.  His manager, Ozzie Guillen, said, “When we play him at first, he doesn’t hit either.”

So here is hoping that Dunn finds his hitting stroke and has a better season next year. 

 

 

Baseball trading day and the Red Sox

On the day of the deadline for non-waiver trades, the Red Sox picked up a starting pitcher, Erick Bedard,  from the Mariners.  Does this mean that the outlook for Clay Buchholz returning this season is slim to none?  According to MLB.com

The Red Sox traded four Minor Leaguers in two separate deals. Catcher Tim Federowicz, pitcher Stephen Fife and righty Juan Rodriguez were sent to the Dodgers for outfielder Trayvon Robinson. The Red Sox then dealt Robinson and outfielder Chih-Hsien Chiang to the Mariners to complete the exchange for Bedard and Minor League reliever Josh Fields, a right-hander.

I think I agree with Nick Cafardo’s reaction in the blog posting soon after the news broke

Think Tim Federowicz and Chih-Hsien Chiang are going to be pretty good players. Federowicz was certainly the Sox’ most complete catcher. Chiang’s taken a while to get going, but now a pretty good player.

At least Sox didn’t have to give up third baseman Will Middlebrooks, who didn’t play for Portland today giving rise to speculation he might have been involved in a deal.

Still unclear as to why Erik Bedard cost them this much.

I have only had a chance to see Middlebrooks and Chiang when we got to a Portland Sea Dogs – New Hampshire Fisher Cats game a week ago.  I remarked to Bob that Chiang had a good shot of making it.  Middlebrooks didn’t stand out.  So now he will, only for Seattle.

MLB.com had reaction from Kevin Youkilis

Bedard, 32, has made 16 starts, going 4-7 with a 3.45 ERA. In 91 1/3 innings, he has allowed 77 hits and opponents are hitting just .226 against him.

“He’s nasty,” Red Sox third baseman Kevin Youkilis said of Bedard earlier this week. “I think he owns me. When he was pitching against us, when he was healthy, I don’t know if we beat him — he beat up on us. He’s good. He has a great slider. When he’s healthy and he locates pitches, he’s a pretty remarkable pitcher.”

When he’s healthy is the key.  So the Sox will likely give Bedard Andrew Miller’s spot in the rotation.  Andrew Miller struggled again today even though the Red Sox rallied to beat the White Sox again.  His problem has been walks, but today he gave up 10 hits instead.  The other pitcher who could be pulled out the rotation is Tim Wakefield who is actually having a pretty decent year for a guy who will be 45 in 2 days.  He just got  his 2000th strikeout and will probably get win 200 next time out.  Yes, the knuckleball is unpredictable, but I can’t see replacing him with Bedard.  You can call me sentimental, but let’s let Wake finish the year in the rotation.

And we also got a utility infielder, Mike Aviles.  A sign perhaps that as optimistic as everyone is sounding about Jed Lowrie, they are worried about him staying healthy.  He arrived in Chicago last night

Aviles, who was in Cleveland with the Royals, arrived in Chicago in the third inning, put on his new uniform with No. 3 on the back, and played the bottom of the ninth inning at third base.

The 30-year-old has played second base, third base, and shortstop this season. The righthanded-hitting Aviles is batting .222 this season, but is at .309 with a .944 OPS in 55 at-bats against lefthanded pitchers. He is a career .296 hitter against lefties.

Playing off the bench for the Red Sox, Aviles said, is not a problem.

“The situation here is completely different,’’ he said. “We’re in first place and we have an opportunity to win a world championship. It’s going to take more than 25 guys to do that. I’m more than happy to be one of those guys.’’

And the Red Sox are rolling.

Halfway through the 2011 season

Given the way the season began, the Sox are not in bad shape.  At the halfway point (July 2), they were 47-34.  Since then they have added a win and a loss and gained a game on the Yankees.  As Nick Cafardo said, “The Red Sox are flawed, but many teams would love to have blemishes and still win 47 games.”

Blemishes?  Mike Cameron just never could come back from his surgery last year.  Theo Epstein, when he was releasing Mike, said it was one of his mistakes, a trade that didn’t work out.  And J.D. Drew.  I like the guy.  He’s a pro.  But we can’t count on him as we could in years past.  I see retirement for J.D. at the end of the season.  Carl Crawford.  What to say.  He has a terrific smile, but so far he hasn’t lived up to his promise.  We hope he is just adjusting.  I keep waiting for Darnell McDonald to start hitting.  There are kids waiting in the wings, Darnell.  But the big blemish is John Lackey.  And I think it is an even bigger mistake than Mike Cameron that Theo has to deal with.

The John Lackey situation Just when you think it might be the point of no return for John Lackey, he steps up and turns in a gem in Philadelphia. But Lackey remains in prime position to be the cover boy for Theo Epstein's book of bad signings with his $82.5 million deal. 'It's accurate to say that he had an elbow injury earlier this year and got a shot for that that alleviated some of the symptoms,' Epstein said regarding Lackey. 'And we're going to monitor it closely.' Lackey is sitting on a 6.81 ERA to go along with his 5-7 record.

Bob Ryan writes this morning in the Boston Globe

John Lackey once led the American League in earned run average

John Lackey once won 19 games.

John Lackey once gave up a leadoff double and then retired 27 Oakland A’s in succession, a performance that came in the middle of a stretch in which he threw 30 2/3 scoreless innings.

John Lackey once pitched and won a World Series Game 7.

John Lackey once was deemed worthy of a five-year, $82.5 million contract by the Boston Red Sox, who certainly were not bidding against themselves when they made the offer.

Where has that guy gone?

After yesterday, his ERA is 7.47.  And even if Theo didn’t know this, he could never pitch at Fenway where his ERA is now, get this, 9.17.  I feel a little bad piling on when he was injured and his wife is sick, but baseball – particularly in Boston- is serious business.  We are in a tight race right now and when Lackey is scheduled to pitch, one has to pencil in a loss.  Here is Bob Ryan again

But it’s really not funny. It’s a gigantic hole in the middle of a starting rotation that really needs to get to the All-Star break without something disastrous taking place. No one knows when we’ll next see Clay Buchholz, who is being sent to North Carolina for further examination of his back, and who, according to the manager, won’t be sent out there “until we know he’s not hurting himself.’’

Meanwhile, what do you say in a circumstance such as this, when a guy in whom you have invested an enormous sum of money, and who arrived with the reputation of being both a talented pitcher and a highly competitive one, has presented himself in such a horrendous manner? There really is no way to exaggerate how big a catch Lackey was supposed to be.

Here is what respected Baseball Prospectus had to say on the subject of Lackey’s impending free agency at the conclusion of the 2009 season: “Lackey stands alone as one of the best, a relatively young righty who carries significantly less risk than the other high-upside hurlers.’’

 …

He has become the ultimate Mystery Guest when he takes the mound, especially at Fenway. A 9.17 ERA in his home ballpark speaks rather eloquently.

As recently as two years ago, John Lackey was an honored and respected pitcher. Now his numbers identify him as the worst starter in major league baseball. Baseball Prospectus probably would like a do-over. Theo, too.

But there is lots going well.  Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury are back for one.  Nick Cafardo writes

They found a new starter in 6-foot-7-inch Andrew Miller that they’re excited about.

They tested the versatility of Alfredo Aceves and he succeeded in every role he was used in.

Josh Beckett returned to be a dominant pitcher. Jon Lester has continued his development into elite status among lefties. Jonathan Papelbon, who recorded his 16th save last night, has answered the challenge of pitching well in his walk year and Daniel Bard continues to show why he’s ready for the next step in his career – to be a closer. He appears ready if the Sox cut ties with Papelbon after this season.

Adrian Gonzalez is the team and league’s MVP so far. He’s an RBI machine (73), who knocked in the winning runs last night and has come to the American League and conquered.

David is Goliath again Reports of David Ortiz's demise have been greatly exaggerated and Big Papi is in the midst of one of his most productive seasons in a Red Sox uniform, and he's hammering lefties, too. After 80 games, he has a .956 OPS, good for ninth in the AL. Versus lefthanders, Papi has an impressive .992 OPS and a .341 average. The Red Sox recently struggled without Ortiz in the lineup in National League parks, prompting manager Terry Francona to use Ortiz at first base to get him into the lineup in Philadelphia, which landed regular first baseman Adrian Gonzalez in right field for a night.

And the last word goes to David Ortiz

“This team has a chance to do some things,’’ Ortiz said. “When we get our lineup healthy and together and the weather gets nice and hot, we’re going to be fine here. We’re going to put up some runs. It’s going to be fun.’’

Go Sox!  And congratulations to the All Stars:  Beckett, Ortiz, Gonzalez and Ellsbury!

Nadal at Wimbledon 2011

I’ve talked about this before:  Rafael Nadal is not only an amazing tennis player, but he is an interesting person as well.  I just ran across this headline in the Guardian, “‘I would love Andy Murray to win a grand slam,’ admits Rafael Nadal”

Andy Murray & Rafael Nadal

Murray is the young Scot who carries the weight of the Empire, particularly at Wimbledon. 

If it was not for his 10 grand slam titles and 36 other tournament victories, it would be hard to associate the Nadal who is courteous and who loves family life with the one who tears opponents apart on the court. On Friday he knows a whole country will be willing Murray to victory. And if Nadal was in the crowd instead of on the other side of the court, he would be leading the cheers.

“If I have to say one player who I want to win a grand slam, if it’s not me, I would say it’s Andy,” Nadal says. “He deserves it. [Novak] Djokovic has already won a lot of things this year, [Juan Martín] Del Potro has won a grand slam. Del Potro’s a fantastic player but he got to the semi-finals of a grand slam once and then he went on to win. Andy has been there seven times in the semi-finals. When you look at his career he deserves to win a grand slam. I know him as a person. I like him. He’s a good guy. That’s why I think it would be fair if he won a grand slam. The first thing is that I always want to wish the best to the good guys, the good people, and he’s a good person.”

Considering that they spend their working life trying to knock each other off the court, it might seem strange that Nadal and Murray should be such good friends. Not to Nadal.

“A lot of people believe that competition is like life,” says the Spaniard. “That’s not how I see it. I love to win, I love the competition and I will try my best until the last moment but what happens away from the court is not going to affect what happens on the court. We can try our best on the court and when we are off it we can be close friends, because we are talking 10 minutes before the match.

“I always go with the good people, not with the bad people or arrogant people. I know Andy is not like this. He’s a normal guy. He hasn’t changed with all the victories. That’s always a very positive thing for our sport, a positive example for all the kids and everybody. That’s why I like him and that’s why I wish him all the best.”

When Nadal steps on to court , though, he will not allow himself to worry about how devastated Murray might be if another chance goes begging. “I am sure he’s going to win a grand slam but probably not this time,” he says, before quickly correcting himself. “Sorry. That is a mistake in my English. I meant ‘hopefully’.”

This is why Nadal is a winner.  And even if he hasn’t gotten a grand slam yet, Murray is also a winner.

 

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